Morning Briefing: February 16, 2026

US markets closed for Presidents’ Day. Stock prices below are Friday (Feb 13) closes. Crypto trades 24/7.

The Story Today

Risk assets face a tension: Mag 7 earnings loom (NVDA reports Wednesday) while the dollar firms above 108 and real yields hover near 4.5%. Friday’s price action showed rotation out of high-beta tech (NVDA -2.2%, AMD -3.6%) and into crypto proxies (MSTR +8.9%, HOOD +6.8%). Gold’s pullback from $5,000 and copper’s softness signal demand concerns. The macro call: liquidity is tightening, not expanding. Position for volatility.

Macro Dashboard

– S&P 500: 6,836.17 (+0.05%)
– Nasdaq: 22,546.67 (-0.22%)
– Dow Jones: 49,500.93 (+0.10%)
– Nikkei 225: 56,806.41 (-0.24%)
– USD/JPY: 153.55 (+0.59%)
– VIX: 21.20 (+1.83%)

Dollar firming against yen. Real yields elevated. No M2 data available today.

Portfolio Movers

NVDA $182.78 (-2.24%) — Earnings Wednesday Feb 25. AI capex cycle key test.

AMD $205.94 (-3.58%) — Data center competition fears. Down with NVDA.

HOOD $75.97 (+6.82%) — Robinhood Chain L2 launch + MIAX stake driving re-rating.

MSTR $133.88 (+8.85%) — Bitcoin levered play working. BTC proxy bid.

UNH $293.19 (+3.10%) — Optum expansion outweighing Medicare Advantage scrutiny.

GOOGL $305.72 (-1.06%) — AI disruption concerns persisting.

*No other holdings moved >2%.*

Crypto Pulse

– BTC: $68,737 (-2.37%) — Pullback from $70K resistance. ETF flows neutral.
– SOL: $85.94 — Holding $67-$110 range. ETF inflows stabilizing.
– ETH: data unavailable — Source unresponsive.

Altcoins: Nothing notable >5%. Market consolidating.

Commodities

– Gold: $5,006.10 (-0.80%) — Profit-taking after $5,000 breach. Real yields capping.
– Silver: $77.60 (+2.53%) — Outperforming gold on industrial + monetary bid.
– Copper: $5.73 (-1.03%) — China property demand concerns.
– WTI Oil: $62.40 (-0.70%) — Range-bound. Supply adequate.

This Week

Earnings (Critical):
– NVDA: Wednesday Feb 25 — Most important report this quarter
– RKLB: Wednesday Feb 26 — Space/defense update

Macro:
– FOMC minutes: Wednesday
– Flash PMIs: Friday

Crypto:
– ETH Denver: sentiment event this week
– SOL Firedancer client progress

Markets: US closed today. Normal trading resumes Tuesday.

The Takeaway

We are in a “liquidity constrained, earnings-dependent” regime. The Fed is on hold; cuts pushed to late 2026 if at all. NVDA earnings Wednesday is the single most important event—anything less than blowout guidance and the AI capex narrative cracks. Positioning: stay long the AI infrastructure build-out (NVDA, AMD) but size for 15-20% drawdowns. Crypto exposure via MSTR/HOOD is working as levered beta. Copper (FCX) remains the cleanest cyclical long—buy dips below $60. Gold above $5,000 is a liquidity warning, not a risk-on signal. Watch the 10-year yield: a break above 4.6% puts pressure on all risk assets.