**THE STORY TODAY**
US markets reopen after Presidents’ Day with a quiet macro backdrop. The dollar remains pinned near 97 as traders digest last week’s soft inflation prints, while gold’s brief foray above $5,000 has already retraced 2%. NVDA earnings loom on February 25—the consensus is priced for perfection, which means the risk is to the downside. Until then, expect range-bound action with stock-specific volatility dominating.
**MACRO DASHBOARD**
S&P 500: 6,836.17 (+0.05%) — Friday close
Nasdaq: 22,546.67 (-0.22%) — Friday close
Dow Jones: 49,500.93 (+0.10%) — Friday close
Nikkei 225: 56,566.49 (-0.42%) — Feb 13 close
DXY: 96.97 (+0.06%) — Feb 16 close
US 10-Year Yield: 4.025% (-0.031) — Trading lower on growth concerns
VIX: 21.20 (+1.83%) — Still elevated
EUR/USD: 1.184 (+0.13% implied)
USD/JPY: 152.92 (-0.38%) — Yen grinding stronger
Dollar direction: Range-bound near multi-month lows. No sustained direction until Fed clarity emerges.
**SECTOR MOVERS**
AI & Semiconductors:
NVDA $182.78 (-2.24%) — Pulling back before Feb 25 earnings; the setup is dangerous if guidance disappoints
AMD $205.94 (-3.58%) — Feb 12 close; competition fears and valuation compression
Fintech & Crypto Infrastructure:
HOOD $75.97 (+6.82%) — Robinhood Chain L2 launch driving momentum; this is the new narrative
MSTR $133.88 (+8.85%) — Bitcoin beta working; company continues converting debt to equity for BTC buys
Bitcoin Treasury Strategy:
IREN $42.22 (+5.47%) — Mining-to-AI pivot story intact; $9.7B Microsoft contract validating the thesis
Healthcare:
UNH $293.19 (+3.10%) — Bouncing off lows; Medicare Advantage headwinds priced in?
Space Economy:
RKLB $67.44 (+2.17%) — Feb 26 earnings ahead; defense contract momentum building
**CRYPTO PULSE**
BTC: $68,420.60 (+0.04%) — Dead money above $65K, can’t break $70K
ETH: $1,981.16 (+0.86%) — Outperforming BTC slightly
SOL: $86.60 (+1.87%) — Holding above $80 support post-ETF approval rally
Total crypto market cap: ~$2.2T (flat)
BTC dominance: ~60% (unchanged)
Altcoin movers (24h):
ADA $0.288 (+2.57%) — Quiet rebound
DOGE $0.100 (+2.13%) — Meme rotation
ZEC $290.78 (+2.45%) — Privacy narrative catching a bid
No significant 5%+ altcoin moves. Market is consolidating, not distributing.
**COMMODITIES**
Gold: $4,928.20 (-2.34%) — Rejected at $5,000 psychological level; profit-taking hit
Silver: $77.60 (+2.53%) — Outperforming gold; catching up trade
Copper: $5.726 (-1.03%) — China demand concerns persisting
WTI Oil: $62.40 (-0.70%) — Trading range-bound; OPEC+ spare capacity capping upside
Driver: Gold’s sharp reversal after touching $5,000 suggests the rally needs consolidation before the next leg. Silver’s relative strength is notable.
**THIS WEEK**
Economic data:
– Tuesday: Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET), Empire State Manufacturing (8:30 AM ET)
– Wednesday: Housing Starts & Permits (8:30 AM ET), Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET)
– Fed speakers: Bowman (Tue), Barr (Tue), Daly (Tue)
Earnings:
– NVDA: February 25 — The big one. AI capex guidance will move markets.
– RKLB: February 26 — Space/defense story; watch for contract updates.
**THE TAKEAWAY**
We’re in a holding pattern. The macro backdrop—soft dollar, elevated yields, range-bound equities—suggests neither panic nor euphoria. NVDA earnings on February 25 is the event risk that matters; anything before that is noise.
Crypto is consolidating after a strong February run. Bitcoin needs a catalyst to break $70K—either ETF inflows re-accelerating or a macro shock. Neither looks imminent.
The trade: Stay selective. HOOD and IREN are working. NVDA is a coin flip into earnings. Gold’s pullback after $5K is healthy, not bearish. Wait for setups. Don’t force trades in a range-bound tape.
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*US markets were closed Monday, February 16 for Presidents’ Day. Stock prices reflect Friday, February 13 closes unless otherwise noted.*